The Trump Card?

Hello Readers.

My last #stubbornlyoptimistic post was entitled the faithful navigator. In it I focused on the personal and professional challenges of one person, Moi, in a sea of ever changing possibilities, problems and persistent prejudices.

Having watched the rather momentous occurrences on the international political stage recently I have to say faithful navigation is something we all very much need at present.

But where to begin? The story starts, perhaps a little strangely in 1937. JRR Tolkien's "The hobbit" was published that year, though it was a more modern adaptation of that story by Peter Jackson that kept me entertained this evening and set me on the path to writing this piece. Specifically, "The battle of the Five Armies" For those not familiar with Tolkien's works, bear with me, the link will become apparent.

So what of real world events? We have over the course of this last 7 days seen the UK Prime Minister continuing her attempts to look for some area of provenance on the world stage, Martin McGuinness has resigned on health grounds leaving the Northern Ireland Stormont assembly somewhat precariously poised. And of course we have seen the Swearing in and Taking Office of now President Donald J Trump of America. Elections are forthcoming soon in continental Europe. France, Germany and Italy all have somewhat nationalistic parties gathering a head of steam in their respective political arena's. All seemingly unconnected, random and disparate events? Maybe.

There are those currently in the media and elsewhere who denigrate former president Obama for doing little on the world stage these last 8 yrs. Forgetting perhaps that a Democrat in the oval office  is often thwarted by Republican control over congress. Others want change from the status Quo here at home in the  UK and hence we now have Brexit with an overall rise in nationalistic rhetoric. Peace can be dull. Yet it was not always so. I am 42 years old. I can remember a time when UK forces did not openly wear uniform on home soil for fear of direct attack. Overall in the western world, since the the Demolition of the Berlin wall 1989 and the good Friday agreement of 1998, US and UK citizens have enjoyed quite the peaceful and benign experience. Continental Europe having had a broadly similar experience, save for a few basque bombings every now and then.

What's my point? My point is that years of broadly Quiet, Peaceful Democracy has bread an unconscious apathy along with discontent at the usual peacetime economic challenges. Politicians are "all the same", voting is "pointless" and "War" is something that happens "elsewhere" to "other countries" or "in the past". We can see live feeds on CNN or Sky/BBC of missiles going into Gaza/Lebanon/Iraq/Kuwait. "But" says the mass population in these western countries, "they are unlikely to drop en mass on to us, we're safe". (not withstanding 9/11, which of course is the major and cataclysmic terror act of our time. My point being it was not an every day occurrence to be bombed or shot at whilst crossing the street) Safe to spend more effort en masse voting on "the voice" than on governmental referendums or similar.

When this "apathy" happens to large enough groups of people  "Me" replaces "Us" in the group think mindset. The thirst for "change" based on "inequality" and the perception of being a "have not" starts to rise. What people vote for, or even if they vote, becomes a function of narrow self interest and nothing more.

President Trump and those behind him saw this. He is in power through a wave of promises to bring about just such a "change" and to gift power and prosperity to those whose perception is that they have none, whether that be fact or otherwise. BUT this administration gained office on a very focused agenda, with virtually no mention of wider foreign policy. The sheer malignant genius of managing to  gain to office by giving literally no details of future international intent is staggering. So in tune were Trumps team with the "me" mindset that they played it flawlessly. So great was the emphasis on the man himself as deplorable human being, - which frankly I doubt anyone of sense would argue - and his business type rhetoric of tough talk that the vacuum of foreign policy information was missed. Missed by an electorate guided by near sighted self interest and/or circumvented by archaic voting practices. That is until now.

The USA has for years been an intermediary in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine. Today the new President has signalled a major shift in foreign policy regarding the area. Israel announced it  was approving the building of new homes in the "occupied territory" a move long opposed by Obama's administration and UN security council resolutions, and there are overtones of the US embassy in Israel being moved to Jerusalem. That this announcement came after a phone call conversation between Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is suggestive to say the least.

Seriously? bear with me on this point. Extremists usurping the name of Islam and religion are already doing a great job of the odd terror attack on foreign shores. (like I said above anyone remember 9/11? or the London bus and tube bombings?) Today most Arabs are Muslim, thus the extremist factions purporting to speak for Muslims, however misguided, are not going to take kindly to this perceived slight against the Arab vision of a Palestinian state.

Ok. back to 1937. This time not Erabor of Tolkien's world, but Germany. Hitler's Germany. March 1938 and Austria is annexed. October of the same year Hitler takes the Sudetenland. That portion of the Czechoslovakia border area that is predominantly German speaking. During this time the popularity of Hitler at home was huge. He had brought back pride and postive change to the people of  Germany who had very demonstrably lost it all in the recent war. History of course, now tells us his Foreign policy was any thing but positive.

Now I'm not suggesting Trump is about to annex New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, as i don't think even he would dream that up. But bear in mind it was Hitlers actions in Poland that kicked off WW2.  Germany invaded Poland and caused France and Britain to get involved. We currently have the Syrian conflict being a show of strength between Russian and American ideology by proxy.  Kicking over the previously dormant hornets nest of the Gaza strip could very well be akin to lighting a slow burn fuse that begins a war not between the countries of the "western world" but between those erroneously usurping the "Muslim"/Arab banner and the western military machines. And we know Trumps thoughts on "Muslims" don't we? Anyone else think it's reminiscent of the scapegoated Jews? Subtly different but still eerily worrisome.

Far fetched? Consider that Trump has already mentioned beefing up the American military. Consider that the world has already seen one war that was fought on false pretence. (Iraq 2.0 anyone?) Hitler didn't need to invade Poland. He merely needed an excuse to invade Poland. Austria and the Sudetenland were pretty much historically German thus the international community had little reason to oppose his goals there. But once he went for Poland, well France and Britain had the "reason" for  "justifiable" action. Note I put justifiable in quotes. This does not mean the war against hitler was wrong in my view, far from it. However it serves to highlight that before a country can act there must be political will for a given intervention. Hence Chamberlain's repeated meetings with hitler before the declaration of war, and Tony Blairs WMD's

So back to Trump's decision on the Gaza strip. Why? Either he's very stupid or very clever. Stupid because he fails to see that overturning decades old political stability is dangerous, or clever because that's exactly what he and his team does see and want to create. Light the fuse, create the reason for  intervention and you justify the creation of large military machinery to counter the threat that wasn't there until it was made so. Drag others into the conflict by proxy and you have pretty much a prelude to a large scale conflagration.

Ok ok. I can hear you all going "oh come on.. really .. is that actually gonna happen?" Sure it might not. But consider the timing. Inherent instability of Brexit/stormont/European politics and the growing nationalistic feelings across the world and ask yourself how stable do you think it is? With the right levers even the heaviest of rocks can be moved with but a single push. The American President is on record saying NATO is obsolete. The safety net that held together the threads of 67 years of peace is slowly being removed or undermined.

So what of Tolkien, and the dwarves of Erabor? Erabor was a Dwarven kingdom of untold riches, lost long ago to a brooding dragon who hoarded all the gold and treasures for his own. After the dragon was defeated the Dwarven king was for a time possessed of a sickness. A sickness where anyone who came near the gates of Erabor was perceived as a threat to the riches and a potential Thief. So taken was he by ownership of his kingdom's wealth that he broke all bonds of honesty, loyalty and friendship before he recovered his mind. However by that time many lay dead, entreaties from other civilisations of middle earth had fallen on deaf ears, and an entirely avoidable series of battles had taken place costing millions of lives.

Tolkien himself denied any allegorical context of his writings. But in this instance i think he'd forgive a likening to nationalistic greed. Fair trade, individual rights and freedoms. Bonds of friendship and honour. These are all things that cross borders and bind humanity together despite cultural differences.

If we close our borders, our hearts and our minds, barring our gates, we do so at our own peril. Now more than ever our politicians need to be mindful of the small actions. The seemingly insignificant little occurrences that may, if unchecked, lead the world down a very very dark path. I hope I am proven wrong. I hope this is nothing more than a period of peaceful change in the ever spinning tale of the human race. But will not assume it to be so.

The "alternative facts" that are being espoused from Trump's Whitehouse sow seeds of division, dissent & distrust. In so doing they "muddy the swamp" of truth verses propaganda or spin. Even the words "alternative facts" speak of a regime in love with its own image of itself. The twitter accounts of dissenting departments of the US government being shutdown over trivialities like the numbers of supporters at the inaugurations. This is deeply, deeply troubling. The information itself is banal, but the draconic control measures are quite the cause for alarm.

Lastly, there is now a Federal challenge to Donald J Trump for possible impeachment as he has  repeatedly failed to divest himself fully of his business assets and interests. Something it would not have taken the intellect of Sir Ian McKellen's Gandalf to foresee. Keep in mind that the shadow of extremism stands behind Trump. Not Muslim. but Christian. Mike Pence. Vice President to an administration that is seemingly intent on destabilising the Arab/Israeli situation.

Ask yourself "Why" ?

We are one nation -- We share one heart, one home, and one glorious destiny

"We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power.

We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world -- but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first.

We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones -- and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the Earth.

There should be no fear -- we are protected, and we will always be protected.

We will be protected by the great men and women of our military and law enforcement and, most importantly, we are protected by God.

Donald J Trump. 45th President of the USA.

The "Trump Card" a modern day Trojan Horse? 

As for the Trump/Pence domestic agenda I'll leave that for another time. Until then stay #stubbornlyoptimistic, for it is needed now more than ever. I'll leave you with yet another Gandalf/Ian McKellen Quote:

"All we can do is decide what to do with the time that is given to us"

T'ill next time...