Open letter Mrs May, and Mr Corbin.

Dear Prime Minster, and Leader of the Opposition.

I sincerely hope you both get the chance to read this. I am an ordinary Uk resident. Not a professor, or highly academic individual. I have worked in the UK military, and also in the private sector. I am 42 yrs old.

In my life time I have seen times of conflict on UK and foreign soil, UK military unable to wear uniform for fear of  PIRA attack, and civilians at risk of regular bombings. I have also seen the fall of the Berlin wall, the rise of the Stormont assembly, with political discourse the tool employed, rather than bomb or bullet. I myself deployed to Iraq in 2009. That said, peaceful diplomacy and discourse has lead much of the last twenty years when one looks at the UK, and the US.

Now we see a different scenario. One that perhaps requires a little bluntness, I hope you will both indulge me in that regard.

Politics is, I'm sure you'd both agree, often an area where one cannot openly say what one thinks. Diplomacy is measured, responses weighed and actions that have consequences thought through. This is why I applaud The PM on her recent very speedy visit to meet the "American president" Note I say "The President". Perhaps i should say "his office" Because I like many others am aware Britain and America need each other as nations, but current events now put the UK and specifically the PM in a very difficult place.

Furthermore, and very intentionally as a separate thing, I would also applaud the speed at which the PM visited "Donald Trump". This man is loose cannon and I strongly suspect that a pre emptive intervention on behalf of NATO was required by the UK before he could make good on the comments he has made regarding NATO being "obsolete" and sign some sort of executive order,  constitutional or otherwise.

That "Donald Trump" now holds the power and resources of the office of the President of the United States of America is one of the greatest challenges that British government, UN, Nato and other world leaders have faced in decades. But this I think you both know.

What to do about it?

I applaud the PM's early efforts in attempting to mitigate the damage this man could do to NATO by a stroke of a fountain pen. But I now implore the UK government, and both sides of the House of Commons, across all party divides and agendas, to put aside political obfuscation. Put aside any thought of dealing with Donald trump as a rational human being. But also, do not take him for a fool. He blind sided UK diplomacy on the border ban easily enough.

As I write this the European council President Donal Tusk has suggested that "The new American demonstration " has made "worrying declarations".

Parliament carries a standing in the UK as an example of everything Donald Trump derides. The discussion of ideas and policy. Representation of the people, and even, when challenged by the judiciary, the acceptance of rule of law. The simple and telling fact that the Acting Attorney General has been removed from post after disagreeing with the legality of an executive order should in my view be just a fair warning that Mr Trump's administration with stomach no dissenting voices.

Mrs May, can you imagine parliament or yourself in capacity as PM sumarily removing the 8 judges who ruled against the governments position on Brexit? No. yet this is what Donald Trump has done with the power vested in him by the office of the President of the United States of America.

The "Man" is corrupting the "Office", and in so doing may be instrumental in the destruction of his own and other countries, at the cost of many lives. Narcissistic fascism knows no limits. It will use power to gain what it can and consume all that it wishes.

It is Fascism. no more. no less. The common values we British hold with America are NOT represented by Donald trump or his administration. He has, to put it bluntly, highjacked the machinery of democracy, and if left unchecked, will systematically dismantle each piece of that machine until none are left who can oppose his world view. Truth is derided as false news, and lies blatantly ignored, or backed up with assertions of "alternative facts"

Please please do not align us with this man. IF you value and recognise the "special relationship" that the UK has with America, realise that this relations ship is between the peoples of each country...not the leaders. Donald Trump is not, and does not speak for an "America" that the UK should have any relationship with, let alone a special one.

To Mr Corbyn, I say well done as ever on standing up for the principles of democracy, and process. Specifically with regards to the Brexit issue. However brexit today is a very different proposition from brexit not 8 days past. I strongly urge a free vote in the commons on this issue. Remove the three line whip. Let conscience and judgement drive the process at this time. A referendum result is all very well, but to leave ourselves as a nation somewhat isolated from Europe with Russia, China and now America all unknown qualities, would be very unwise.

To you both I say, whilst I don't envy your choices, I wish you both the best of luck in guiding the  parliamentary process of the United Kingdom and upholding the very values that underpin the freedoms of ordinary UK and US citizens like myself.

In fighting terror, one must be vigilant. and in this case I do not think its an overstatement to say that the biggest threat to peace in our time now sits not in some small dusty desert hole in Iran, Iraq, or any of the 7 nations on a spurious list, but in the white house.

Yours sincerely

Sarah Ellis
Uk resident.

A Rock and a Hard Face.

Rock and a hard place.

That is currently where the UK find itself,  and by extension Mrs May our PM.

Brexit: Uk is out in the cold from the European family. 

America: In the hands of a fascist manipulator who promises much but changes his mind with the ratings. 

I commend the chutzpa of Mrs May for walking into the lions den, perhaps as a mediator between The Trump and the right thinking world, or as one seeking trade deals etc. I genuinely feel for her being wrong footed by his subsequent, almost immediate, release of an indefensible immigration ban, regardless of how much or  how little she she knew privately.  

International relations rely on shared national interest. Or to put it another way "mutual benefit"  what then of shared Morality, or shared values. 

Britain does business with many. Democracy, Autocracy, Principality, or Theocracy. Business often crosses boundaries of how we humans live. Laws for instance are not universal. What someone does  quite freely in the UK can get one arrested or jailed in Saudi Arabia. Indeed "normal" in America is very much not so in the UK. Gun laws being one easy example. 

But one thing did come out of Mrs Mays visit. the  "apparent" commitment to Nato that The Trump publicly promised. 

This is clever, and I'm cautiously optimistic (see what i did there?) First of all the statement is public, and thus Trump can be called out on it should he change his pan...mind... 

Secondly it seeks to re establish the principle of multi national effort in the mind of the US administration.  By extensions it also d=send quite the stark message that action by a nato congruity in isolation would be viewed rather critically. 

Of course Mrs May is a politician, by which I mean a diplomat and Practiced negotiator well versed in the rules of that particular game. Her "stony expression" when most of us would fail to keep the sheer incredulity off our faces is quite remarkable. 

The worry is Trump isn't playing the same game. The "normal" rules don't seem to apply. 

Also, have to commend the BBC's Laura Kunesburg for a brilliant question. Trumps response was all to predictable. Some say it was in jest. I Suspect not so much. he turns and says to Mrs May "this was your choice of question?"

Forgive me but I suspect Mrs May had little to do with a free press question freely asked. Yet Trump assumes it to be a specifically set question..? Intriguing insight into his mind set of normal media relations and their control. 

All in all, the latest events point towards an anti Iran stance and an American administration very much against the Islamic world as a whole. I am drawn to that statement regarding "wiping Radical Islamic terror" off the face of the earth. Note the word radical. Not "extremists" as has been previously used. Radical simply means "to change" it does not necessarily means to change by force. Some dictionary definitions even include "progressive" in the definition. 

So if The Trump had stood up and said "wipe progressive islamic terror" off the face of the earth then that wouldn't make sense. Neither would "islamic terror" since it is for to broadly inclusive. 

I have always been the type of person who judged things based on experience and observation, creating an understanding to link the two via research. I used to drive my school teachers mad, by  constantly asking "why" 

Why why why? 

Why did the UK PM go to see The Trump so quickly? because she had to. It's too late after he leaves nato or cuts funding. She as many I think would agree, knew we cant trust trump beyond his last  press conference. So quick remedial and pre emptive action was needed. As state visit however, was perhaps a little too much reward, too soon. 

Of course theres the trade deals and all that stuff, but its predominantly window dressing. without NATO all else becomes somewhat moot. The will tell if Mrs May has made  a lasting impact. Sadly being a woman i suspect Tump privately is wondering just how she escaped the washing up, rather than giving long term credence to her views. 

We now wait for The Trump's next move, to announce an appointment to the supreme court. But for the next few days I'm turning my eyes to those who react to the breakneck acceleration of his runaway train of poor political policy. 

Iran, and the other six countries. Europe, UK, and its devolved assemblies. HRH Queen Elizabeth and perhaps more importantly the  mechanism and  personalities of the US government. The law makers, and ordinary people who now see just what they have to deal with. 

America/the world is teetering on a sociopolitical edge. It wont take much of a lever to tip it. Hence why I replied to the Israel ambassadors tweet directly...

Iran fired a test missile today. Aggression, or reaction? you decide. 

A friend asked me today if we have another war, say if America goes after the oil or resource and strategic location of Iran (that Trump thinks the US should have retained control of in Iraq), will it involve British troops. It might. our "special relationship" might end up with "British boots on the ground" 

But consider this. 

If we go in in support of Trump America we truly are aggressors. Post Brexit Europe may well be pitched against us, politically and militarily.

If we stand with our NATO allies, discourage trump America yet he ignores us and go it alone, we could be looking at American soldiers, people we have stood beside and fought with for so long, across different side of a conflict zone. 

Whatever motivation and beliefs that driving this agenda, be they Trumps, Bannon's or Pence's, it is highly likely that if left unchecked he will destroy America, and possibly much of what we used to call "the free world" along with it. 

You doubt that he can achieve such a feat in 4 years? Look at the effect 8 days of Trump have had on the world. 

Stay #stubbornlyoptimistic people... keep vigilant. 

The blank page....

Hi world.

I'm sat at the computer, a blank page in front of me. I am wondering just exactly how to put my thoughts and opinions into words on the screen.

How does one articulate ones observations, concerns and fears, with a nod to critical thinking, objectivity and solid research.

Also, I confess a pervasuive sinking feeling. The title of this blog is "Stubbornly Optimistic". Yet I think you'll forgive me if I say that currently one has to be uncommonly stubborn to be all that optimistic regarding world events. The entirely justified, yet unending stream of negative news spewing forth regarding The Trump's actions is demoralising.

I asked myself if that is because of my own political opinions and beliefs. In truth perhaps so, although thats also an over simplification.

Take the latest direct action by the Trump. Blocking ingress of people from certain countries for various time periods. The countries concerned being ones in which the residents have not instigated any succesful terrorist action in or on America. So, even if one agrees this is the right action, it is against the wrong countries.

Is it the right action? Well where does the actual real threat of terrorism come from? Not from the refugees, thats well known. So even were the action against the "right" countries it's proven to be ineffective via already held data.

So, I refer back to my last few blogs. Is The Trump an idiot or a genius? We know he is fical to say the least but one has to ask why these countries. If not for security, as the "alternative justification" would suggest, then why?

I had suggested that it may be a republican christian fundamentalist policy enacted by proxy, so they can distance themselves as a party from political fall out. Allowing The Trump to take the fall as it were. However that doesn't hold up. Pence, has previously tweeted....

Pence may be a fully paid up Christian fundamentalist and have his own litany of faults, but he is a politician. Very much not a loose cannon. It would however seem his views are flexible to political expediency. The pursuit of power, perhaps for entirely legitamate reasons from his POV, may ultimately be via a means that he comes to regret. (especially if it leads to war with Iran....now thats a proper OOPSIE) 

The civil right act has outlawed discrimination based on race in the US since 1964. But here's another angle. Last year we saw racial tensions rise. We saw black and white Americans killing each other  based predominantly on their skin colour. 

Ww have also had 8 years of  an erudite, educated and liberal, but also black US President. There are some in America who only see the 4th item on that list as anything of consequence.

"We, the citizens of America, are now joined in a great national effort to rebuild our country and to restore its promise for all of our people."

Donald J Trump...

So the current immigration block. Is it race discrimination dressed up as security? The alt right links that Trump had (has?) do rather suggest a racial motivation. His former CEO Steve Bannon now holds a position in the administration as chief advisor no less, and a high level security post. based on what experience? Ideology?

It begs the question. Who was Trump talking about when he referenced "our" people? Not "American people" but "our" people? 

Whoever holds The Trumps ear, be it Pence, or Bannon, will shape the "tone" of American domestic events for good or ill. Latterly we haven't seen much of the former. 

However...

The ACLU just  gave us the first and perhaps most significant silver lining. Trump is facing battle in the courts. In congress, and on the streets, ordinary Americans with the legal skill sets are working pro bono to arrange the freeing of those detained. Most significantly legal action has been taken and succeeded  stating this action by The trump is unconstitutional. Effectively the law courts reversed the president's order. 

America is slowly turning it gaze inward, and if not yet at war with itself,  is seemingly having some pointed internal discussions.  

The second "possible" sliver lining came from an unexpected direction. Teresa May. Seemingly attempting to reign in the worst of The Trumps hyperbole. I say "possible" as it is early days and there may yet be other motives behind the PM's apparent eagerness to meet with the new president's office. It is fair to say that the UK and the USA do need to cultivate a working relationship, regardless of the personalities in office. Though quite how symbiotic this one is likely to be is unclear at this point. 

Perhaps the most Stubbornly Optimistic observation of recent days is this. 

President he maybe, but The Trump is still merely one man. Granted he has a team of like minded  group think behind him. However there are far more people in influential positions willing to oppose his transgressions than extend them. Ordinary people too, alternative communication accounts springing up in answer to the national parks twitter shut down....

Alternative twitter accounts....

The more People in all walks of life mobilise, speak out and act, the weaker he will become. That may be scant comfort, given that the world will keep spinning whilst that happens, with Russia and others dropping into at the power vacuum whilst the US has it eyes elsewhere... but in the current climate it is a comfort that I for one will take. 

The Trump may yet make America Great Again. However I doubt he envisaged that he and the white nationalist agenda would the common enemy that brought them to that end. 

The process however may be far from pretty, or peaceful. 

A week is an awfully long time...

Hello.

I had promised myself that on the back of my last two articles I was going await events and see what  transpired.

But, sometimes it's hard to switch off from what you see building up. I was looking for comedy videos on you tube last night, funny memes, anything, to distract me from the frankly overwhelmingly negative vibes coming from the epicentre of the American political establishment. I found Russel Howard.

So, as someone once said, "A week is long time in politics".

With Pence's Trump fowling up the place its a lifetime. As of 18hrs ago this was the reckoning;- (Thank's to Kelly Tonks for the research) 

For those finding it difficult to keep up - here's a run down of the week so far
To recap:
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the DOJ’s Violence Against Women programs.* On January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the National Endowment for the Arts.* On January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the National Endowment for the Humanities.

January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Minority Business Development Agency.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Economic Development Administration.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the International Trade Administration.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Legal Services Corporation.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Civil Rights Division of the DOJ.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Environmental and Natural Resources Division of the DOJ.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Overseas Private Investment Corporation.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Office of Electricity Deliverability and Energy Reliability.

January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Office of Fossil Energy.

January 20th, 2017, DT ordered all regulatory powers of all federal agencies frozen.

January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the National Endowment for the Arts.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the National Endowment for the Humanities.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Minority Business Development Agency.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Economic Development Administration.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the International Trade Administration.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Manufacturing Extension Partnership.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.

January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Legal Services Corporation.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Civil Rights Division of the DOJ.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Environmental and Natural Resources Division of the DOJ.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Overseas Private Investment Corporation.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Office of Electricity Deliverability and Energy Reliability.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
January 19th, 2017, DT said that he would cut funding for the Office of Fossil Energy.
January 20th, 2017, DT ordered all regulatory powers of all federal agencies frozen.

January 20th, 2017, DT ordered the National Parks Service to stop using social media after RTing factual, side by side photos of the crowds for the 2009 and 2017 inaugurations.
January 20th, 2017, roughly 230 protestors were arrested in DC and face unprecedented felony riot charges. Among them were legal observers, journalists, and medics.
January 20th, 2017, a member of the International Workers of the World was shot in the stomach at an anti-fascist protest in Seattle. He remains in critical condition.

January 21st, 2017, DT brought a group of 40 cheerleaders to a meeting with the CIA to cheer for him during a speech that consisted almost entirely of framing himself as the victim of dishonest press.

January 21st, 2017, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer held a press conference largely to attack the press for accurately reporting the size of attendance at the inaugural festivities, saying that the inauguration had the largest audience of any in history, “period.”

January 22nd, 2017, White House advisor Kellyann Conway defended Spicer’s lies as “alternative facts” on national television news.
January 22nd, 2017, DT appeared to blow a kiss to director James Comey during a meeting with the FBI, and then opened his arms in a gesture of strange, paternal affection, before hugging him with a pat on the back.
January 23rd, 2017, DT reinstated the global gag order, which defunds international organizations that even mention abortion as a medical option.
January 23rd, 2017, Spicer said that the US will not tolerate China’s expansion onto islands in the South China Sea, essentially threatening war with China.

January 23rd, 2017, DT repeated the lie that 3-5 million people voted “illegally” thus costing him the popular vote.
January 23rd, 2017, it was announced that the man who shot the anti-fascist protester in Seattle was released without charges, despite turning himself in.
January 23rd, 2017, it was announced that the man who shot the anti-fascist protester in Seattle was released without charges, despite turning himself in.
January 24th, 2017, Spicer reiterated the lie that 3-5 million people voted “illegally” thus costing DT the popular vote.
January 24th, 2017, DT tweeted a picture from his personal Twitter account of a photo he says depicts the crowd at his inauguration and will hang in the White House press room. The photo is curiously dated January 21st, 2017, the day AFTER the inauguration and the day of the Women’s March, the largest inauguration related protest in history.
January 24th, 2017, the EPA was ordered to stop communicating with the public through social media or the press and to freeze all grants and contracts.
January 24th, 2017, the USDA was ordered to stop communicating with the public through social media or the press and to stop publishing any papers or research. All communication with the press would also have to be authorized and vetted by the White House.

January 24th, 2017, HR7, a bill that would prohibit federal funding not only to abortion service providers, but to any insurance coverage, including Medicaid, that provides abortion coverage, went to the floor of the House for a vote.

January 24th, 2017, Director of the Department of Health and Human Service nominee Tom Price characterized federal guidelines on transgender equality as “absurd.”

January 24th, 2017, it was discovered that police officers had used confiscated cell phones to search the emails and messages of the 230 demonstrators now facing felony riot charges for protesting on January 20th, including lawyers and journalists whose email accounts contain privileged information of clients and sources.
And today: the wall and a ban on Muslims entering from a large number of countries and the end to accepting Syrian refugee

January 24th, 2017, DT ordered the resumption of construction on the Dakota Access Pipeline, while the North Dakota state congress considers a bill that would legalize hitting and killing protestors with cars if they are on roadways.

And now we have:

The USA to UN funding is to be revisited and a moratorium conducted under two presidential executive orders. A worrying development to be sure .. but I'll come back to this.

So. Where to begin? Objectivity. There are a number possible causes for the actions we see from the Whitehouse:

1) Trump is a self obsessed Liability, and nobody knew so we're flying blind here

2) Trump is a self obsessed Liability, Pence et al knew and colluded hoping to limit damage.

3) Trump is a self obsessed Liability, Pence et al knew and agree with what he's doing and/or the way its being done. 

Now the 4th option.

4) Trump is not an idiot and we've all missed something. 

Ok. lets explore option 4: Sure Trump is a challenging character, brash, moneyed, uncultured and blunt. Not particularly likeable. He does however resonate with the presentation of a "get stuff done" vibe that strikes chords with the blue collar under belly of much of America. After all its often said "nice guys rarely win fire fights" So perhaps, just perhaps, his business acumen may lend him some currency in areas of government that he might have passing knowledge of. After all bankruptcy isn't un common in business. 

If that were true, and his differences aside from those of policy, were mainly ones of style when compared to the past presidents, democrat and republican alike, then many could look beyond his unpleasantness. (should?, no. but could? yes) waiting for him to prove his competance. One can after all separate the "man" from the "office", we are no stranger to unpleasant politicians in either side of the pond. 

However it is his Character that worries and frightens. Shown time and again demonstrably as a pathological liar prone to egomaniacal behavioural traits. Quick to make up spurious comment on the fly, fabricating facts to suit theories and presenting himself in a positive light at the expense of either fact or truth. When called out on the flagrant errors of these statements he attacks the credibility of those who argue against him rather than dealing with the accusations, refusing to take questions from specific reporters etc. 

In short the "Man" cannot be trusted. Thus the "office of the president of the USA" cannot at present be trusted. 

OK, taking that forward, what next? "The Office of the president of the USA" is more than one man. its a group effort. Press officers, Sean Spicer being one who has been on screen quite a bit. Even his reserve cracked with a rueful smile on one occasion when "defending the claim of 3 million illegal votes" that lost The Donald a majority electorate vote. His statement "That is what the president believes" being as close as any press officer can get to "i know its crap but i cant say that" in public.

Today the Entire state departments senior team resigned. Why? could that be a moral and ethical stand in refusing to serve an administration and by association government that does not value facts or truth? 

As I alluded to in my blog "Trump card" I cannot believe this all happened because the establishment was blind to Trump's faults. So option 1) is out. This leave options 2/3.

If someone or a group of someones planned this, then there must be an end goal in sight. What is that goal? How will it be achieved? Does Trump believe he will do it? Does the republican party and Pence think they can guide him sufficiently to neuter his worst faux par's? Do "The Donald" and "the  Republican party" Actually have the same goals? (see option 5)

Senior republicans have already told "The Donald" to knock it off regarding the 3 million illegal votes. Yet he has ordered some form of enquiry as yet to be determined. (mind you that could be yet another alternative fact to save face, one which never bears fruit)

"The Donald" seem to be governing as a CEO presently, expecting state and others to simply do as he wishes. Mexico could be a problem though since he doesn't run that, and I wouldn't want to be the white house staffer to explain that "inconvenient truth" to him. One gets the impression that "No" isn't a world he hears often, hence his incomprehension that someone might actually disagree with him and refuse to budge. Ego says 'wall will be built and paid for by Mexico". Thus The Donald believe it to be so. 

Time will ultimately tell if the republican party can direct their loose cannon, minimise collateral damage and hit their intended targets. For now much of "The Donald's" agenda and "the republicans" are aligned.  Once it is no longer so I would venture that an impeachment will happen between now and 2020. Which side of the house it comes from is anyones guess. 

There is however an option 5. This is the real scary one. The one where a "perceived fool" with unlimited resource fools us all, gains power and thus gets to reshape the world as we know it for many many years to come. 

5) Trump is an egomaniac, and a facist believing in breeding, racial superiority and a few other  choice "theories". One with whom the republican establishment knowlingly makes a bargain to get into power. Yet they under estimate the dragon they have unleashed. The dragon refuses to be constrained and having weakened the international checks and balances of a US funded U.N and NATO.... America can once more act Militarily independently and somewhat unchallenged.  All he needs is time....One single successful terror attack is the excuse the dragon need to set the fire.....just one....

And who then will stand in the way? Who then will tell "The Donald" to "knock it off" ? 

Were Pence and his ilk were looking inward, to their "'christian doctrine agenda, old skool right and  proper ideology" Bathroom bills etc with all its "great inclusivity" of marginalised peoples...?

Whilst The Donald was looking outward, to a global power base, unencumbered by accountability and the need to work with others... growth, expansion resource, redraw the map...

Will 2017-2020 be remembered as the 21st century's equivalent to the lead up in 1936-39? will fascism wear a suit and play its trump card? 

Will good honest people fact check, shake heads and then wonder how? 

It's happened before... 

Until next time, keep your eyes open and stay #stubbornlyoptimistic

Lows, Laughs and Legality.

Oh Dear.

I feel Golum's pain, truly.

Tonight I had hoped to write something that was a little more "uplifting" than my last article. After all it was, as one reader rather succinctly put it, "Bleak".

But.....

America's Trump continues to reverberate around the globe, and the smell doesn't get any sweeter.

Pipelines being built, environmental protections reversed. Climate change monitoring has its funding frozen. Suposedly "The Trump" has won awards for "Environmentalist Trump".... I'll just  leave this  here...

link to Trumps Environmental awards evidence.

Soon theres going to be line of merchandising dolls no doubt to go with the cinematic drama...

President Trump (Certified Free from vested interests)
Environmentalist Trump (Including awards certificate - missing from box)
Businessman Trump (with 6 certified bankruptcy proofs. Please send off the coupons enclosed for the tax returns..we'll get them back to you honest)
Making America great again Trump..(with free red hat)
Truthful Trump (production cancelled due to lack of ...well.... truth)
And of course not forgetting....
 LGBT Trump with free Mike pence Doll and & day pass to a reparative therapy Spa of your choice.

(All made under license in China)

In short the uplifting article i was hoping to pen this evening has taken a battering.... However all is not lost.

In the face of what some might dress as outright lies, but other's recognise as bone fide "alternative facts". The day after this infant(ile) American administration began it's long 4 year march to ignominy and ridicule, we have a refreashing dose of law, order and good old fashioned common sense from the UK Supreme court.  

Due Process. Love or loathe Brexit, the proper process and legal frame works must be adhered to. A fact "The Trump" would be wise to pay heed to.  The UK parliament must now debate the issue and satisfy the UK constitutional requirements. Proof that, even now, no man, (or woman) is above democracy or the rule of law. 

I hope you'll forgive another Tolkien indulgence as i quote everyone's favourite Grey Wizard 

"There are other forces at work here besides the will of evil - and that is an encouraging thought" 

So. What to bring as a counter foil to the bleak and dreary? 

How about a tribute to a funny guy, whilst poking fun a the whole European "thing" circa 1939 style.

Allo Allo ran for a good number of years when i was a kid and even though some of the humor has dated a little, the cheeky take on the serious business of occupied France in the war complete with dodgy accents and terrible french from English agent come Police officer "crabtree" still makes me Chuckle...

But I'm gonna leave the final word to Ronnie Barker. When boxed in, be it figuratively or literally, there's three things to remember:

So it's goodnight from me...and its goodnight from him 

Till next time on #stubbornlyoptimistic

The Trump Card?

Hello Readers.

My last #stubbornlyoptimistic post was entitled the faithful navigator. In it I focused on the personal and professional challenges of one person, Moi, in a sea of ever changing possibilities, problems and persistent prejudices.

Having watched the rather momentous occurrences on the international political stage recently I have to say faithful navigation is something we all very much need at present.

But where to begin? The story starts, perhaps a little strangely in 1937. JRR Tolkien's "The hobbit" was published that year, though it was a more modern adaptation of that story by Peter Jackson that kept me entertained this evening and set me on the path to writing this piece. Specifically, "The battle of the Five Armies" For those not familiar with Tolkien's works, bear with me, the link will become apparent.

So what of real world events? We have over the course of this last 7 days seen the UK Prime Minister continuing her attempts to look for some area of provenance on the world stage, Martin McGuinness has resigned on health grounds leaving the Northern Ireland Stormont assembly somewhat precariously poised. And of course we have seen the Swearing in and Taking Office of now President Donald J Trump of America. Elections are forthcoming soon in continental Europe. France, Germany and Italy all have somewhat nationalistic parties gathering a head of steam in their respective political arena's. All seemingly unconnected, random and disparate events? Maybe.

There are those currently in the media and elsewhere who denigrate former president Obama for doing little on the world stage these last 8 yrs. Forgetting perhaps that a Democrat in the oval office  is often thwarted by Republican control over congress. Others want change from the status Quo here at home in the  UK and hence we now have Brexit with an overall rise in nationalistic rhetoric. Peace can be dull. Yet it was not always so. I am 42 years old. I can remember a time when UK forces did not openly wear uniform on home soil for fear of direct attack. Overall in the western world, since the the Demolition of the Berlin wall 1989 and the good Friday agreement of 1998, US and UK citizens have enjoyed quite the peaceful and benign experience. Continental Europe having had a broadly similar experience, save for a few basque bombings every now and then.

What's my point? My point is that years of broadly Quiet, Peaceful Democracy has bread an unconscious apathy along with discontent at the usual peacetime economic challenges. Politicians are "all the same", voting is "pointless" and "War" is something that happens "elsewhere" to "other countries" or "in the past". We can see live feeds on CNN or Sky/BBC of missiles going into Gaza/Lebanon/Iraq/Kuwait. "But" says the mass population in these western countries, "they are unlikely to drop en mass on to us, we're safe". (not withstanding 9/11, which of course is the major and cataclysmic terror act of our time. My point being it was not an every day occurrence to be bombed or shot at whilst crossing the street) Safe to spend more effort en masse voting on "the voice" than on governmental referendums or similar.

When this "apathy" happens to large enough groups of people  "Me" replaces "Us" in the group think mindset. The thirst for "change" based on "inequality" and the perception of being a "have not" starts to rise. What people vote for, or even if they vote, becomes a function of narrow self interest and nothing more.

President Trump and those behind him saw this. He is in power through a wave of promises to bring about just such a "change" and to gift power and prosperity to those whose perception is that they have none, whether that be fact or otherwise. BUT this administration gained office on a very focused agenda, with virtually no mention of wider foreign policy. The sheer malignant genius of managing to  gain to office by giving literally no details of future international intent is staggering. So in tune were Trumps team with the "me" mindset that they played it flawlessly. So great was the emphasis on the man himself as deplorable human being, - which frankly I doubt anyone of sense would argue - and his business type rhetoric of tough talk that the vacuum of foreign policy information was missed. Missed by an electorate guided by near sighted self interest and/or circumvented by archaic voting practices. That is until now.

The USA has for years been an intermediary in the Middle East between Israel and Palestine. Today the new President has signalled a major shift in foreign policy regarding the area. Israel announced it  was approving the building of new homes in the "occupied territory" a move long opposed by Obama's administration and UN security council resolutions, and there are overtones of the US embassy in Israel being moved to Jerusalem. That this announcement came after a phone call conversation between Trump and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is suggestive to say the least.

Seriously? bear with me on this point. Extremists usurping the name of Islam and religion are already doing a great job of the odd terror attack on foreign shores. (like I said above anyone remember 9/11? or the London bus and tube bombings?) Today most Arabs are Muslim, thus the extremist factions purporting to speak for Muslims, however misguided, are not going to take kindly to this perceived slight against the Arab vision of a Palestinian state.

Ok. back to 1937. This time not Erabor of Tolkien's world, but Germany. Hitler's Germany. March 1938 and Austria is annexed. October of the same year Hitler takes the Sudetenland. That portion of the Czechoslovakia border area that is predominantly German speaking. During this time the popularity of Hitler at home was huge. He had brought back pride and postive change to the people of  Germany who had very demonstrably lost it all in the recent war. History of course, now tells us his Foreign policy was any thing but positive.

Now I'm not suggesting Trump is about to annex New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, as i don't think even he would dream that up. But bear in mind it was Hitlers actions in Poland that kicked off WW2.  Germany invaded Poland and caused France and Britain to get involved. We currently have the Syrian conflict being a show of strength between Russian and American ideology by proxy.  Kicking over the previously dormant hornets nest of the Gaza strip could very well be akin to lighting a slow burn fuse that begins a war not between the countries of the "western world" but between those erroneously usurping the "Muslim"/Arab banner and the western military machines. And we know Trumps thoughts on "Muslims" don't we? Anyone else think it's reminiscent of the scapegoated Jews? Subtly different but still eerily worrisome.

Far fetched? Consider that Trump has already mentioned beefing up the American military. Consider that the world has already seen one war that was fought on false pretence. (Iraq 2.0 anyone?) Hitler didn't need to invade Poland. He merely needed an excuse to invade Poland. Austria and the Sudetenland were pretty much historically German thus the international community had little reason to oppose his goals there. But once he went for Poland, well France and Britain had the "reason" for  "justifiable" action. Note I put justifiable in quotes. This does not mean the war against hitler was wrong in my view, far from it. However it serves to highlight that before a country can act there must be political will for a given intervention. Hence Chamberlain's repeated meetings with hitler before the declaration of war, and Tony Blairs WMD's

So back to Trump's decision on the Gaza strip. Why? Either he's very stupid or very clever. Stupid because he fails to see that overturning decades old political stability is dangerous, or clever because that's exactly what he and his team does see and want to create. Light the fuse, create the reason for  intervention and you justify the creation of large military machinery to counter the threat that wasn't there until it was made so. Drag others into the conflict by proxy and you have pretty much a prelude to a large scale conflagration.

Ok ok. I can hear you all going "oh come on.. really .. is that actually gonna happen?" Sure it might not. But consider the timing. Inherent instability of Brexit/stormont/European politics and the growing nationalistic feelings across the world and ask yourself how stable do you think it is? With the right levers even the heaviest of rocks can be moved with but a single push. The American President is on record saying NATO is obsolete. The safety net that held together the threads of 67 years of peace is slowly being removed or undermined.

So what of Tolkien, and the dwarves of Erabor? Erabor was a Dwarven kingdom of untold riches, lost long ago to a brooding dragon who hoarded all the gold and treasures for his own. After the dragon was defeated the Dwarven king was for a time possessed of a sickness. A sickness where anyone who came near the gates of Erabor was perceived as a threat to the riches and a potential Thief. So taken was he by ownership of his kingdom's wealth that he broke all bonds of honesty, loyalty and friendship before he recovered his mind. However by that time many lay dead, entreaties from other civilisations of middle earth had fallen on deaf ears, and an entirely avoidable series of battles had taken place costing millions of lives.

Tolkien himself denied any allegorical context of his writings. But in this instance i think he'd forgive a likening to nationalistic greed. Fair trade, individual rights and freedoms. Bonds of friendship and honour. These are all things that cross borders and bind humanity together despite cultural differences.

If we close our borders, our hearts and our minds, barring our gates, we do so at our own peril. Now more than ever our politicians need to be mindful of the small actions. The seemingly insignificant little occurrences that may, if unchecked, lead the world down a very very dark path. I hope I am proven wrong. I hope this is nothing more than a period of peaceful change in the ever spinning tale of the human race. But will not assume it to be so.

The "alternative facts" that are being espoused from Trump's Whitehouse sow seeds of division, dissent & distrust. In so doing they "muddy the swamp" of truth verses propaganda or spin. Even the words "alternative facts" speak of a regime in love with its own image of itself. The twitter accounts of dissenting departments of the US government being shutdown over trivialities like the numbers of supporters at the inaugurations. This is deeply, deeply troubling. The information itself is banal, but the draconic control measures are quite the cause for alarm.

Lastly, there is now a Federal challenge to Donald J Trump for possible impeachment as he has  repeatedly failed to divest himself fully of his business assets and interests. Something it would not have taken the intellect of Sir Ian McKellen's Gandalf to foresee. Keep in mind that the shadow of extremism stands behind Trump. Not Muslim. but Christian. Mike Pence. Vice President to an administration that is seemingly intent on destabilising the Arab/Israeli situation.

Ask yourself "Why" ?

We are one nation -- We share one heart, one home, and one glorious destiny

"We assembled here today are issuing a new decree to be heard in every city, in every foreign capital, and in every hall of power.

We will seek friendship and goodwill with the nations of the world -- but we do so with the understanding that it is the right of all nations to put their own interests first.

We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones -- and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the Earth.

There should be no fear -- we are protected, and we will always be protected.

We will be protected by the great men and women of our military and law enforcement and, most importantly, we are protected by God.

Donald J Trump. 45th President of the USA.

The "Trump Card" a modern day Trojan Horse? 

As for the Trump/Pence domestic agenda I'll leave that for another time. Until then stay #stubbornlyoptimistic, for it is needed now more than ever. I'll leave you with yet another Gandalf/Ian McKellen Quote:

"All we can do is decide what to do with the time that is given to us"

T'ill next time...