Monday 30 January 2017

A Rock and a Hard Face.

Rock and a hard place.

That is currently where the UK find itself,  and by extension Mrs May our PM.

Brexit: Uk is out in the cold from the European family. 

America: In the hands of a fascist manipulator who promises much but changes his mind with the ratings. 

I commend the chutzpa of Mrs May for walking into the lions den, perhaps as a mediator between The Trump and the right thinking world, or as one seeking trade deals etc. I genuinely feel for her being wrong footed by his subsequent, almost immediate, release of an indefensible immigration ban, regardless of how much or  how little she she knew privately.  

International relations rely on shared national interest. Or to put it another way "mutual benefit"  what then of shared Morality, or shared values. 

Britain does business with many. Democracy, Autocracy, Principality, or Theocracy. Business often crosses boundaries of how we humans live. Laws for instance are not universal. What someone does  quite freely in the UK can get one arrested or jailed in Saudi Arabia. Indeed "normal" in America is very much not so in the UK. Gun laws being one easy example. 

But one thing did come out of Mrs Mays visit. the  "apparent" commitment to Nato that The Trump publicly promised. 

This is clever, and I'm cautiously optimistic (see what i did there?) First of all the statement is public, and thus Trump can be called out on it should he change his pan...mind... 

Secondly it seeks to re establish the principle of multi national effort in the mind of the US administration.  By extensions it also d=send quite the stark message that action by a nato congruity in isolation would be viewed rather critically. 

Of course Mrs May is a politician, by which I mean a diplomat and Practiced negotiator well versed in the rules of that particular game. Her "stony expression" when most of us would fail to keep the sheer incredulity off our faces is quite remarkable. 

The worry is Trump isn't playing the same game. The "normal" rules don't seem to apply. 

Also, have to commend the BBC's Laura Kunesburg for a brilliant question. Trumps response was all to predictable. Some say it was in jest. I Suspect not so much. he turns and says to Mrs May "this was your choice of question?"

Forgive me but I suspect Mrs May had little to do with a free press question freely asked. Yet Trump assumes it to be a specifically set question..? Intriguing insight into his mind set of normal media relations and their control. 

All in all, the latest events point towards an anti Iran stance and an American administration very much against the Islamic world as a whole. I am drawn to that statement regarding "wiping Radical Islamic terror" off the face of the earth. Note the word radical. Not "extremists" as has been previously used. Radical simply means "to change" it does not necessarily means to change by force. Some dictionary definitions even include "progressive" in the definition. 

So if The Trump had stood up and said "wipe progressive islamic terror" off the face of the earth then that wouldn't make sense. Neither would "islamic terror" since it is for to broadly inclusive. 

I have always been the type of person who judged things based on experience and observation, creating an understanding to link the two via research. I used to drive my school teachers mad, by  constantly asking "why" 

Why why why? 

Why did the UK PM go to see The Trump so quickly? because she had to. It's too late after he leaves nato or cuts funding. She as many I think would agree, knew we cant trust trump beyond his last  press conference. So quick remedial and pre emptive action was needed. As state visit however, was perhaps a little too much reward, too soon. 

Of course theres the trade deals and all that stuff, but its predominantly window dressing. without NATO all else becomes somewhat moot. The will tell if Mrs May has made  a lasting impact. Sadly being a woman i suspect Tump privately is wondering just how she escaped the washing up, rather than giving long term credence to her views. 

We now wait for The Trump's next move, to announce an appointment to the supreme court. But for the next few days I'm turning my eyes to those who react to the breakneck acceleration of his runaway train of poor political policy. 

Iran, and the other six countries. Europe, UK, and its devolved assemblies. HRH Queen Elizabeth and perhaps more importantly the  mechanism and  personalities of the US government. The law makers, and ordinary people who now see just what they have to deal with. 

America/the world is teetering on a sociopolitical edge. It wont take much of a lever to tip it. Hence why I replied to the Israel ambassadors tweet directly...




Iran fired a test missile today. Aggression, or reaction? you decide. 

A friend asked me today if we have another war, say if America goes after the oil or resource and strategic location of Iran (that Trump thinks the US should have retained control of in Iraq), will it involve British troops. It might. our "special relationship" might end up with "British boots on the ground" 

But consider this. 

If we go in in support of Trump America we truly are aggressors. Post Brexit Europe may well be pitched against us, politically and militarily.

If we stand with our NATO allies, discourage trump America yet he ignores us and go it alone, we could be looking at American soldiers, people we have stood beside and fought with for so long, across different side of a conflict zone. 

Whatever motivation and beliefs that driving this agenda, be they Trumps, Bannon's or Pence's, it is highly likely that if left unchecked he will destroy America, and possibly much of what we used to call "the free world" along with it. 

You doubt that he can achieve such a feat in 4 years? Look at the effect 8 days of Trump have had on the world. 

Stay #stubbornlyoptimistic people... keep vigilant. 


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